External validation of a prediction model for surgical site infection after thoracolumbar spine surgery in a Western European cohort

Journal of Orthopaedic Surgery and Research
Daniël M C JanssenPaul C Willems

Abstract

A prediction model for surgical site infection (SSI) after spine surgery was developed in 2014 by Lee et al. This model was developed to compute an individual estimate of the probability of SSI after spine surgery based on the patient's comorbidity profile and invasiveness of surgery. Before any prediction model can be validly implemented in daily medical practice, it should be externally validated to assess how the prediction model performs in patients sampled independently from the derivation cohort. We included 898 consecutive patients who underwent instrumented thoracolumbar spine surgery. To quantify overall performance using Nagelkerke's R2 statistic, the discriminative ability was quantified as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We computed the calibration slope of the calibration plot, to judge prediction accuracy. Sixty patients developed an SSI. The overall performance of the prediction model in our population was poor: Nagelkerke's R2 was 0.01. The AUC was 0.61 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.68). The estimated slope of the calibration plot was 0.52. The previously published prediction model showed poor performance in our academic external validation cohort. To predict SSI after in...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Jan 9, 2019·European Spine Journal : Official Publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society·Daniël M C JanssenPaul Willems
Jul 19, 2019·The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery. American Volume·Thomas K FehringAaron Tande
Aug 30, 2019·JOR Spine·Fabio GalbuseraTito Bassani
Sep 3, 2020·Global Spine Journal·Jonathan J RasouliThomas E Mroz
Oct 24, 2019·European Spine Journal : Official Publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society·Ayesha QuddusiVictor E Staartjes
Mar 10, 2021·European Spine Journal : Official Publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society·Pascal ZehnderAnne F Mannion
Mar 19, 2021·Journal of Orthopaedic Research : Official Publication of the Orthopaedic Research Society·Olivier Q GrootJoseph H Schwab
May 4, 2021·World Neurosurgery·Daniel LubelskiDaniel M Sciubba

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