Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.)

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Elisha B Are, J W Hargrove

Abstract

Significant reductions in populations of tsetse (Glossina spp) in parts of Zimbabwe have been attributed to increases in temperature over recent decades. Sustained increases in temperature might lead to local extinctions of tsetse populations. Extinction probabilities for tsetse populations have not so far been estimated as a function of temperature. We develop a time-homogeneous branching process model for situations where tsetse live at different levels of fixed temperature. We derive a probability distribution pk(T) for the number of female offspring an adult female tsetse is expected to produce in her lifetime, as a function of the fixed temperature at which she is living. We show that pk(T) can be expressed as a geometric series: its generating function is therefore a fractional linear type. We obtain expressions for the extinction probability, reproduction number, time to extinction and growth rates. The results are valid for all tsetse, but detailed effects of temperature will vary between species. No G. m. morsitans population can escape extinction if subjected, for extended periods, to temperatures outside the range 16°C-32°C. Extinction probability increases more rapidly as temperatures approach and exceed the upper a...Continue Reading

Citations

Jan 1, 1989·Medical and Veterinary Entomology·R D DransfieldD A Adabie
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Aug 6, 2013·Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology·Philippe SolanoMike J Lehane
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Sep 30, 2016·Parasites & Vectors·Soumaïla PagabeleguemJérémy Bouyer
May 16, 2017·Journal of Vector Ecology : Journal of the Society for Vector Ecology·Happiness J NnkoIsabella M Cattadori
Apr 10, 2019·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Damian KajunguriJ W Hargrove
Aug 22, 2019·Medical and Veterinary Entomology·H J BarclayP van den Driessche

Related Concepts

Part
Population Group
Glossina
Protein Expression
Reproduction
Upper Jaw Region
Species
Branching (Qualifier Value)

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