Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox.

Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling
Hiroshi NishiuraMartin Eichner

Abstract

Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data. First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3-5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessme...Continue Reading

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Mar 28, 2013·Biosecurity and Bioterrorism : Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science·Peter FininHarvey Rubin
Jul 1, 2009·Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling·Timo SmieszekRoland W Scholz
Mar 1, 2013·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Kenji MizumotoHiroshi Nishiura
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May 21, 2010·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Joseph R EganSteve Leach
Apr 22, 2008·Current Protocols in Molecular Biology·Martha S Vokes, Anne E Carpenter

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