Fame and obsolescence: Disentangling growth and aging dynamics of patent citations

Physical Review. E
K W HighamU Zülicke

Abstract

We present an analysis of citations accrued over time by patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 1998. In contrast to previous studies, a disaggregation by technology category is performed, and exogenously caused citation-number growth is controlled for. Our approach reveals an intrinsic citation rate that clearly separates into an-in the long run, exponentially time-dependent-aging function and a completely time-independent preferential-attachment-type growth kernel. For the general case of such a separable citation rate, we obtain the time-dependent citation distribution analytically in a form that is valid for any functional form of its aging and growth parts. Good agreement between theory and long-time characteristics of patent-citation data establishes our work as a useful framework for addressing still open questions about knowledge-propagation dynamics, such as the observed excess of citations at short times.

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Citations

Apr 2, 2019·Nature Human Behaviour·Cristian CandiaCésar A Hidalgo
Jan 20, 2018·Physical Review. E·Michael Golosovsky
May 27, 2021·PloS One·Michael V ArnoldPeter Sheridan Dodds

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