Feasibility of eliminating visceral leishmaniasis from the Indian subcontinent: explorations with a set of deterministic age-structured transmission models

Parasites & Vectors
Epke A Le RutteSake J De Vlas

Abstract

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease transmitted by sandflies. On the Indian subcontinent (ISC), VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2017. In the context of VL, the elimination target is defined as an annual VL incidence of <1 per 10,000 capita at (sub-)district level. Interventions focus on vector control, surveillance and on diagnosing and treating VL cases. Many endemic areas have not yet achieved optimal control due to logistical, biological as well as technical challenges. We used mathematical modelling to quantify VL transmission dynamics and predict the feasibility of achieving the VL elimination target with current control strategies under varying assumptions about the reservoir of infection in humans. We developed three deterministic age-structured transmission models with different main reservoirs of infection in humans: asymptomatic infections (model 1), reactivation of infection after initial infection (model 2), and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL; model 3). For each model, we defined four sub-variants based on different assumptions about the duration of immunity and age-patterns in exposure to sandflies. All 12 model sub-variants were fitted to data from th...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 5, 2016·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Siddhivinayak HirvePiero Olliaro
Oct 9, 2018·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Lloyd A C ChapmanT Déirdre Hollingsworth
Oct 6, 2018·Expert Review of Anti-infective Therapy·Shyam SundarJaya Chakravarty
Mar 28, 2019·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Jaya ChakravartyShyam Sundar
Dec 17, 2019·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·Luc E CoffengGraham F Medley
Jul 3, 2020·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Epke A Le RutteSake J de Vlas
Jun 4, 2018·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Epke A Le RutteSake J de Vlas
Dec 13, 2017·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Alyssa FitzpatrickPiero Olliaro
Jun 21, 2018·Molecular Diagnosis & Therapy·Shyam Sundar, Om Prakash Singh
Feb 14, 2021·Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Epke A Le RutteSake J de Vlas
Mar 10, 2021·Transboundary and Emerging Diseases·Anurag Kumar KushwahaChristine A Petersen
Apr 28, 2021·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Luc E CoffengSake J de Vlas

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
PCR

Software Mentioned

R
deSolve

Related Concepts