Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data

The Science of the Total Environment
Sanne MuisPhilip J Ward

Abstract

An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementati...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 16, 2016·The Science of the Total Environment·Agustín Sánchez-ArcillaJeremy Gault
Jun 28, 2016·Nature Communications·Sanne MuisPhilip J Ward
Sep 11, 2016·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·Adebayo Olatunbosun SojobiAdebayo Wahab Salami
Sep 24, 2016·Journal of Experimental Botany·Man-Wah LiHon-Ming Lam
Nov 29, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Toon HaerJeroen C J H Aerts
Oct 19, 2017·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·Zahra Zahmatkesh, Mohammad Karamouz
Feb 1, 2020·PloS One·Till SterzelPaul L Lucas
Jun 3, 2020·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Chengguang LaiXiaoyan Bai
Mar 6, 2019·Scientific Reports·Sanne MuisJeroen C J H Aerts
Dec 24, 2018·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Marco CriadoFernando Santos-Francés
Jul 28, 2020·Earth's Future·Mona HemmatiHussam N Mahmoud
Sep 4, 2020·Scientific Reports·Claudia WolffAthanasios T Vafeidis
Nov 23, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Mohit P Mohanty, Slobodan P Simonovic
Nov 30, 2019·Journal of Environmental Management·Mohit Prakash MohantySubhankar Karmakar
Aug 8, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Giuliano Maselli LocosselliMarcos Silveira Buckeridge
Mar 20, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Ioannis M Kourtis, Vassilios A Tsihrintzis
May 18, 2019·The Science of the Total Environment·Gang ZhaoLiyang Xu
Jun 29, 2021·Plant Biotechnology·Masato AraragiToshiki Uchiumi

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