Forecasting aortic aneurysm rupture: A systematic review of seasonal and atmospheric associations

Journal of Vascular Surgery
Andrew M T L ChoongPhilip J Walker

Abstract

Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) represent a significant burden of disease worldwide, and their rupture, without treatment, has an invariably high mortality rate. Whereas some risk factors for ruptured AAAs (rAAAs) are well established, such as hypertension, smoking, and female sex, the impact of seasonal and meteorologic variables is less clear. We systematically reviewed the literature to determine whether these variables are associated with rAAA. Review methods were according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We calculated pooled proportions and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the different months and seasons. Funnel plots were constructed to assess for publication bias. Given the poor methodologic quality of included studies, a sensitivity analysis was performed on better-quality studies, which scored 6 and above of 9 in the author-modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The pooled proportion of rAAA was highest in the autumn season (incidence rate, 26.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.6%-27.7%; I2 = 15.4%), followed by winter (incidence rate, 26.2%; 95% CI, 24.1%-28.2%; I2 = 72.4%), and lowest in summer (incidence rate, 21.1%; 95% CI, 19.3%-23.0%; I2 = 70.4%). The IRRs of r...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 10, 2020·Vascular Medicine·Gaspar MestresVincent Riambau
Aug 29, 2020·VASA. Zeitschrift für Gefässkrankheiten·Sigrid NikolChristine Espinola-Klein

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