Forecasting the care needs of the older population in England over the next 20 years: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) modelling study.

The Lancet. Public Health
Andrew KingstonMODEM project

Abstract

Existing models for forecasting future care needs are limited in the risk factors included and in the assumptions made about incoming cohorts. We estimated the numbers of people aged 65 years or older in England and the years lived in older age requiring care at different intensities between 2015 and 2035 from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model. PACSim, a dynamic microsimulation model, combined three studies (Understanding Society, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, and the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II) to simulate individuals' sociodemographic factors, health behaviours, 12 chronic diseases and geriatric conditions, and dependency (categorised as high [24-h care], medium [daily care], or low [less than daily] dependency; or independent). Transition probabilities for each characteristic were estimated by modelling state changes from baseline to 2-year follow-up. Years in dependency states were calculated by Sullivan's method. Between 2015 and 2035 in England, both the prevalence of and numbers of people with dependency will fall for young-old adults (65-74 years). For very old adults (≥85 years), numbers with low dependency will increase by 148·0% (range from ten simulations 140·0-152·0) a...Continue Reading

Citations

Jan 20, 2019·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Chris Ham
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Software Mentioned

IMPACT
Stata
Population Ageing and Care Simulation ( PACSim )
PACSim
SAS

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