Forecasting the global demand for HIV monitoring and diagnostic tests: A 2016-2021 analysis

PloS One
Vincent HabiyambereT NeSmith

Abstract

Despite considerable progress, just over half of the 37 million people eligible to start antiretroviral therapy (ART) have accessed treatment and millions of HIV-positive people still do not know their status. With demand for ART continuing to grow, meeting the ambitious 90-90-90 HIV treatment targets will depend on improved access to high-quality diagnostics to both diagnose infection and monitor treatment adherence in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Robust projections of future demand for CD4, viral load (VL), HIV early-infant-diagnosis (EID) tests and HIV rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are needed as scale-up continues. We estimate the current coverage for HIV diagnostics and project future demand to 2021 using a consolidated forecast using data on past coverage and current demand from a number of sources, from 130 predominantly LMIC countries. We forecast that the overall number of CD4 tests is expected to decline between now and 2021 as more countries adopt test-and-treat and shift to VL testing for patient monitoring. Our consolidated forecast projects a gradual decline in demand for CD4 tests to 16.6 million by 2021. We anticipate that demand for VL tests will increase to 28.5 million by 2021, reflecting the incre...Continue Reading

References

Oct 15, 2014·Journal of Infection in Developing Countries·Godwin Abazho AlekuSimon M Agwale
Dec 4, 2014·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Nathan FordGeorge K Siberry
Jan 9, 2016·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Teri RobertsSally Hargreaves
Jan 13, 2017·Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS·Paul K Drain, Christine Rousseau

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Citations

Nov 6, 2018·Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS·Ilesh V Jani, Caroline De Schacht
Aug 14, 2019·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Bernhard KerschbergerEmmanuel Fajardo
Nov 20, 2019·Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases·Benjamin R Bavinton, Alison J Rodger
Dec 14, 2018·AIDS and Behavior·Catherine WexlerSarah Finocchario-Kessler
Sep 17, 2020·African Journal of Laboratory Medicine·Wolfgang Preiser, Gert U van Zyl
Dec 5, 2020·Social Work in Public Health·Maria Dyah KurniasariCheng-Wen Lee
Jan 23, 2021·Diagnostics·Michelle Ann BulterysMonisha Sharma

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