Forecasting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Sen PeiJeffrey Shaman

Abstract

Recurrent outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza create a need for forecasts of the geographic spread of this pathogen. Although it is well established that the spatial progression of infection is largely attributable to human mobility, difficulty obtaining real-time information on human movement has limited its incorporation into existing infectious disease forecasting techniques. In this study, we develop and validate an ensemble forecast system for predicting the spatiotemporal spread of influenza that uses readily accessible human mobility data and a metapopulation model. In retrospective state-level forecasts for 35 US states, the system accurately predicts local influenza outbreak onset,-i.e., spatial spread, defined as the week that local incidence increases above a baseline threshold-up to 6 wk in advance of this event. In addition, the metapopulation prediction system forecasts influenza outbreak onset, peak timing, and peak intensity more accurately than isolated location-specific forecasts. The proposed framework could be applied to emergent respiratory viruses and, with appropriate modifications, other infectious diseases.

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Citations

Mar 1, 2019·PLoS Computational Biology·Sen PeiJeffrey Shaman
Apr 23, 2019·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Mikhail ChurakovSimon Cauchemez
May 24, 2019·PLoS Computational Biology·Michal Ben-NunSteven Riley
Feb 28, 2019·PLoS Computational Biology·Sarah C Kramer, Jeffrey Shaman
Jul 25, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Sheryl Le ChangMikhail Prokopenko
Nov 23, 2019·PLoS Computational Biology·Nicholas G ReichJeffrey Shaman
Jun 27, 2020·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Can ChenLitao Zhang
Aug 11, 2020·Journal of Complex Networks·Sen PeiHernán A Makse
Jul 27, 2018·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Sasikiran KandulaJeffrey Shaman
May 24, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Mohammed A A Al-QanessMohamed Abd Elaziz
Jul 8, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Tian-Shyug LeeChi-Jie Lu
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Sep 9, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Sen PeiJeffrey Shaman
Nov 23, 2021·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Fengshi JingDan Wu

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