Forecasting water temperature in lakes and reservoirs using seasonal climate prediction.

Water Research
Daniel Mercado-BettínRafael Marcé

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts produce probabilistic predictions of meteorological variables for subsequent months. This provides a potential resource to predict the influence of seasonal climate anomalies on surface water balance in catchments and hydro-thermodynamics in related water bodies (e.g., lakes or reservoirs). Obtaining seasonal forecasts for impact variables (e.g., discharge and water temperature) requires a link between seasonal climate forecasts and impact models simulating hydrology and lake hydrodynamics and thermal regimes. However, this link remains challenging for stakeholders and the water scientific community, mainly due to the probabilistic nature of these predictions. In this paper, we introduce a feasible, robust, and open-source workflow integrating seasonal climate forecasts with hydrologic and lake models to generate seasonal forecasts of discharge and water temperature profiles. The workflow has been designed to be applicable to any catchment and associated lake or reservoir, and is optimized in this study for four catchment-lake systems to help in their proactive management. We assessed the performance of the resulting seasonal forecasts of discharge and water temperature by comparing them with hydrolog...Continue Reading

References

Jul 19, 2008·Marine Pollution Bulletin·Sundarambal PalaniPavel Tkalich
Jan 31, 2009·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Stephen R CarpenterAnne Whyte
Apr 21, 2021·Nature Communications·R Iestyn WoolwayEleanor Jennings

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