Frog population viability under present and future climate conditions: a Bayesian state-space approach

The Journal of Animal Ecology
Rebecca M McCafferyElizabeth E Crone

Abstract

1. World-wide extinctions of amphibians are at the forefront of the biodiversity crisis, with climate change figuring prominently as a potential driver of continued amphibian decline. As in other taxa, changes in both the mean and variability of climate conditions may affect amphibian populations in complex, unpredictable ways. In western North America, climate models predict a reduced duration and extent of mountain snowpack and increased variability in precipitation, which may have consequences for amphibians inhabiting montane ecosystems. 2. We used Bayesian capture-recapture methods to estimate survival and transition probabilities in a high-elevation population of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) over 10 years and related these rates to interannual variation in peak snowpack. Then, we forecasted frog population growth and viability under a range of scenarios with varying levels of change in mean and variance in snowpack. 3. Over a range of future scenarios, changes in mean snowpack had a greater effect on viability than changes in the variance of snowpack, with forecasts largely predicting an increase in population viability. Population models based on snowpack during our study period predicted a declining pop...Continue Reading

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Citations

Sep 17, 2013·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Blake R HossackPaul Stephen Corn
Apr 23, 2015·Ecology Letters·Callum R LawsonMartijn van de Pol
Jul 5, 2017·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·David N KoonsMichael Schaub
Dec 28, 2018·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Amanda M KisselMichael J Adams
Nov 11, 2015·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Beth E RossDavid N Koons

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