Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment

PloS One
Barbara NeumannRobert J Nicholls

Abstract

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of peo...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 16, 2016·The Science of the Total Environment·Agustín Sánchez-ArcillaJeremy Gault
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Jun 27, 2015·Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry·Elena Fabbri, Silvia Franzellitti
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Apr 4, 2017·Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·Katie K ArkemaAnne D Guerry
Jul 12, 2017·Nature Communications
Dec 24, 2017·Ambio·Øyvind Paasche, Erik Bonsdorff
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Software Mentioned

ArcGIS World Imagery
Google Earth
Foresight
MODIS
GRUMP

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