Future ocean hypercapnia driven by anthropogenic amplification of the natural CO2 cycle

Nature
Ben I McNeil, Tristan P Sasse

Abstract

High carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in sea-water (ocean hypercapnia) can induce neurological, physiological and behavioural deficiencies in marine animals. Prediction of the onset and evolution of hypercapnia in the ocean requires a good understanding of annual variations in oceanic CO2 concentration, but there is a lack of relevant global observational data. Here we identify global ocean patterns of monthly variability in carbon concentration using observations that allow us to examine the evolution of surface-ocean CO2 levels over the entire annual cycle under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We predict that the present-day amplitude of the natural oscillations in oceanic CO2 concentration will be amplified by up to tenfold in some regions by 2100, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise throughout this century (according to the RCP8.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The findings from our data are broadly consistent with projections from Earth system climate models. Our predicted amplification of the annual CO2 cycle displays distinct global patterns that may expose major fisheries in the Southern, Pacific and North Atlantic oceans to hypercapnia many decades earlier than ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 22, 2016·Conservation Physiology·David J McKenzieJulian D Metcalfe
Oct 21, 2016·Global Change Biology·Robert P EllisRod W Wilson
Aug 21, 2018·Angewandte Chemie·Muhammad Arsalan GhausiLiming Dai
May 10, 2017·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Caroline C Ummenhofer, Gerald A Meehl
Oct 7, 2016·Physiology·Göran E Nilsson, Sjannie Lefevre
Aug 25, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Geir Ottersen, Jess Melbourne-Thomas
Jan 10, 2020·Nature·Timothy D ClarkJosefin Sundin
Sep 28, 2017·Science Advances·Sue-Ann WatsonLloyd S Peck
Jun 17, 2020·Integrative and Comparative Biology·April D GarrettMelissa H Pespeni
Dec 27, 2016·Royal Society Open Science·M DuteilA J King
Dec 25, 2019·Scientific Reports·Shannon J McMahonJennifer M Donelson
Aug 9, 2020·Conservation Physiology·Andrea Y FrommelColin J Brauner
Dec 10, 2016·Conservation Physiology·Lauren E NadlerPhilip L Munday
Feb 21, 2018·Global Change Biology·Blake L SpadySue-Ann Watson
Jun 4, 2020·Ecology and Evolution·Alyce M HancockAndrew T Davidson
Jun 3, 2020·Nature Communications·Wei-Jun CaiDwight K Gledhill
Sep 22, 2020·Annual Review of Marine Science·Wei-Jun CaiNina Bednaršek
Mar 2, 2021·Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology. Part A, Molecular & Integrative Physiology·I Ruiz-JaraboJ Fuentes
Nov 5, 2020·Journal of Invertebrate Pathology·Donald C Behringer, Elizabeth Duermit-Moreau
Dec 11, 2021·Global Change Biology·Min ZhangFangli Qiao

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