Future premature mortality due to O3, secondary inorganic aerosols and primary PM in Europe--sensitivity to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, population and building stock

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Camilla GeelsJørgen Brandt

Abstract

Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000-2009, 2050-2059 and 2080-2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in buildin...Continue Reading

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Citations

Sep 18, 2015·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Kaj M HansenJørgen Brandt
Jan 9, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Susan C AnenbergRita Van Dingenen
Jan 8, 2017·The Science of the Total Environment·V Aleksandropoulou, M Lazaridis
Oct 29, 2017·Current Environmental Health Reports·H OrruB Forsberg
Jul 8, 2017·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·David SegerssonBertil Forsberg
Sep 29, 2020·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Erika von SchneidemesserLuke D Schiferl
Mar 27, 2021·Environment International·Patricia Tarín-CarrascoPedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Jul 3, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Andreas TorneviBertil Forsberg

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Software Mentioned

MATCH
HEIMTSA
DEHM
MPIOM
ECHMA
EVA
INTARESE
GAINS
ECHAM
Economic Valuation of Air pollution ( EVA

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