Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Global Change Biology
Vivitskaia J D TullochRichard Matear

Abstract

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing intersp...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jan 1, 2020·Global Change Biology·Lauchlan H Fraser
Dec 25, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·David E CadeJeremy A Goldbogen
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Feb 3, 2022·Global Change Biology·Andrea A CabreraPer J Palsbøll

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MICE

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