Geostatistical analysis of Malawi's changing malaria transmission from 2010 to 2017.

Wellcome Open Research
Michael Give ChipetaMichael Kayange

Abstract

Background: The prevalence of malaria infection in time and space provides important information on the likely sub-national epidemiology of malaria burdens and how this has changed following intervention. Model-based geostatitics (MBG) allow national malaria control programmes to leverage multiple data sources to provide predictions of malaria prevalance by district over time. These methods are used to explore the possible changes in malaria prevalance in Malawi from 2010 to 2017.  Methods: Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence ( PfPR) surveys undertaken in Malawi between 2000 and 2017 were assembled. A spatio-temporal geostatistical model was fitted to predict annual malaria risk for children aged 2-10 years ( PfPR 2-10) at 1×1 km spatial resolutions. Parameter estimation was carried out using the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods. Population-adjusted prevalence and populations at risk by district were calculated for 2010 and 2017 to inform malaria control program priority setting. Results: 2,237 surveys at 1,834 communities undertaken between 2000 and 2017 were identified, geo-coded and used within the MBG framework to predict district malaria prevalence properties for 2010 and 2017. Nationally, there was a 47.2% red...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Dec 24, 2019·International Health·Rekha Batura, Tim Colbourn
Oct 8, 2020·BMJ Global Health·Julius Nyerere OdhiamboBenn Sartorius
Nov 19, 2020·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Ricardo Ramírez-AldanaOmar Yaxmehen Bello-Chavolla

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