Jun 2, 2020

Global between-countries variance in SARS-CoV-2 mortality is driven by reported prevalence, age distribution, and case detection rate

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
H. BabacicM. Pernemalm


Objective: To explain the global between-countries variance in number of deaths per million citizens (nDpm) and case fatality rate (CFR) due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Design: Systematic analysis. Data sources: Worldometer, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, United Nations Main outcome measures: The explanators of nDpm and CFR were mathematically hypothesised and tested on publicly-available data from 88 countries with linear regression models on May 1st 2020. The derived explanators - age-adjusted infection fatality rate (IFRadj) and case detection rate (CDR) - were estimated for each country based on a SARS-CoV-2 model of China. The accuracy and agreement of the models with observed data was assessed with R2 and Bland-Altman plots, respectively. Sensitivity analyses involved removal of outliers and testing the models at five retrospective and two prospective time points. Results: Globally, IFRadj estimates varied between countries, ranging from below 0.2% in the youngest nations, to above 1.3% in Portugal, Greece, Italy, and Japan. The median estimated global CDR of SARS-CoV-2 infections on April 16th 2020 was 12.9%, suggesting that most of the countries have a ...Continue Reading

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Mentioned in this Paper

Death (Finding)
Health Care Organization
Protein Expression
Receptors, Death Domain
S protein, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus
Regression Analysis
Pneumonia due to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

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