Global patterns of nonanalogous climates in the past and future derived from thermal and hydraulic factors

Global Change Biology
Qin LiJianping Ge

Abstract

Nonanalogous climates (NACs), climates without modern analogs on Earth, challenge our understanding of eco-evolutionary processes that shape global biodiversity, particularly because of their propensity to promote novel ecosystems. However, NAC studies are generally inadequate and partial. Specifically, systematic comparisons between the future and the past are generally lacking, and hydraulic NACs tend to be underemphasized. In the present study, by adopting a frequency distribution-based method that facilitates the procedures of contributions parsing and conducting multiple comparisons, we provide a global overview of multidimensional NACs for both the past and the future within a unified framework. We show that NACs are globally prevalent, covering roughly half of the land area across the time-periods under investigation, and have a high degree of spatial structure. Patterns of NACs differ dramatically between the past and the future. Hydraulic NACs are more complex both in spatial patterns and in major contributions of variables than are thermal NACs. However, hydraulic NACs are more predictable than originally thought. Generally, hydraulic NACs in the future (2100 AD) exhibit comparable predictability to thermal NACs in th...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 23, 2019·Nature Communications·Samuel HoffmannCarl Beierkuhnlein
Jun 15, 2019·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·John W WilliamsVolker C Radeloff

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