Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation

Nature
Xianyao Chen, Ka-Kit Tung

Abstract

Evidence from palaeoclimatology suggests that abrupt Northern Hemisphere cold events are linked to weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)1, potentially by excess inputs of fresh water2. But these insights-often derived from model runs under preindustrial conditions-may not apply to the modern era with our rapid emissions of greenhouse gases. If they do, then a weakened AMOC, as in 1975-1998, should have led to Northern Hemisphere cooling. Here we show that, instead, the AMOC minimum was a period of rapid surface warming. More generally, in the presence of greenhouse-gas heating, the AMOC's dominant role changed from transporting surface heat northwards, warming Europe and North America, to storing heat in the deeper Atlantic, buffering surface warming for the planet as a whole. During an accelerating phase from the mid-1990s to the early 2000s, the AMOC stored about half of excess heat globally, contributing to the global-warming slowdown. By contrast, since mooring observations began3-5 in 2004, the AMOC and oceanic heat uptake have weakened. Our results, based on several independent indices, show that AMOC changes since the 1940s are best explained by multidecadal variability6, rather than an anth...Continue Reading

References

May 4, 2002·Science·David W J Thompson, Susan Solomon
Mar 31, 2012·Annual Review of Marine Science·M Susan Lozier
Jan 25, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ka-Kit Tung, Jiansong Zhou
Jul 15, 2015·Science·Veronica NievesWilliam C Patzert

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Citations

Dec 7, 2018·Nature·Yangyang XuDavid G Victor
May 16, 2020·Scientific Reports·Claire E BulginDavid Ferreira
Jul 19, 2018·Nature·Gerard D McCarthy, Peter W Thorne
Jun 6, 2020·Nature Communications·Xiaolong ChenMinghuai Wang
Feb 14, 2021·Nature Communications·Jinping WangXianyao Chen
Mar 31, 2019·Marine Environmental Research·Jacob T SnyderHannes Baumann
Oct 14, 2021·Nature Communications·Yancheng ZhangZhonghui Liu
Dec 16, 2021·Science Advances·Francois Lapointe, Raymond S Bradley

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Software Mentioned

ERSST
EN4
Argo
HadCRUT4

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