Going from bad to worse: a stochastic model of transitions in deficit accumulation, in relation to mortality

Mechanisms of Ageing and Development
Arnold MitnitskiKenneth Rockwood

Abstract

As people age, they accumulate deficits. The more deficits they accumulate, the greater their vulnerability, which can be expressed as the probability to accumulate even more deficits, or to die. The probability of death is known to be exponentially related to the number of deficits. Using data from elderly (aged 65 + years) participants in the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (n = 9008), we investigated the relationship between the number of deficits and the change in the number of deficits over two successive 5 year intervals. We show that the probabilities of changes in the number of deficits, in relation to baseline, are well fitted (R(2) > 0.98) by a simple distribution, with two parameters. The model suggests a maximum to deficit accumulation, and illustrates no level of deficit accumulation at which there is a net gain in fitness. Age-related deficit accumulation is highly characteristic, and can be modeled as a stochastic process with readily interpretable parameters.

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Citations

Oct 15, 2008·Aging Clinical and Experimental Research·Stephen J MerrillEdmund Duthie
Jul 19, 2013·Biogerontology·Arnold MitnitskiKenneth Rockwood
Sep 19, 2012·Age·Sangkyu KimS Michal Jazwinski
Jan 31, 2012·Age and Ageing·Melissa K AndrewKenneth Rockwood
Jun 7, 2013·Age and Ageing·Susan E Howlett, Kenneth Rockwood
Jul 20, 2007·The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences·Kenneth Rockwood, Arnold Mitnitski
Jul 20, 2007·The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences·Kenneth RockwoodArnold Mitnitski
Oct 2, 2008·BMC Geriatrics·Samuel D SearleKenneth Rockwood
May 22, 2008·PloS One·Melissa K AndrewKenneth Rockwood
Jul 9, 2009·PloS One·Ruth E HubbardKenneth Rockwood
Feb 25, 2014·BMC Geriatrics·Fernando G PeñaKenneth Rockwood
Mar 23, 2010·The Journal of Nutrition, Health & Aging·A LucicesareK Rockwood
Dec 14, 2011·The Journal of Nutrition, Health & Aging·A MitnitskiK Rockwood
Oct 9, 2015·Aging Cell·William B Zhang, Zachary Pincus
Jul 4, 2012·Experimental Gerontology·David SteinsaltzMartin Kolb
Mar 26, 2011·Annals of Epidemiology·Arnold MitnitskiKenneth Rockwood
Nov 26, 2010·Clinics in Geriatric Medicine·Kenneth Rockwood, Arnold Mitnitski
Nov 14, 2007·Journal of the American Medical Directors Association·Kenneth RockwoodArnold Mitnitski
May 15, 2009·Journal of Cellular and Molecular Medicine·Ruth E HubbardKen W Woodhouse
Dec 14, 2011·Journal of the American Geriatrics Society·Joseph W ShegaDebra K Weiner
Feb 21, 2006·Mechanisms of Ageing and Development·Kenneth Rockwood, Arnold Mitnitski
Nov 9, 2015·Journal of Bone and Mineral Research : the Official Journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research·Guowei LiJonathan D Adachi
Nov 21, 2013·Research in Developmental Disabilities·Josje D SchoufourMichael A Echteld
Jun 29, 2014·The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences·Joshua J ArmstrongKenneth Rockwood
Apr 20, 2017·Journal of the American Geriatrics Society·Jeremy WalstonArti Hurria
Sep 23, 2011·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Arnold B MitnitskiKenneth Rockwood
Sep 25, 2018·Journal of Parkinson's Disease·Rhys GravellAlison Jane Yarnall
Jul 18, 2012·Current Opinion in Supportive and Palliative Care·Xavier Gómez-BatisteAlbert Ledesma
Dec 15, 2016·Physical Review. E·Spencer G FarrellAndrew D Rutenberg
Nov 26, 2009·Aging Clinical and Experimental Research·Anna LucicesareKenneth Rockwood
Mar 4, 2017·Biogerontology·A B MitnitskiK Rockwood
Sep 2, 2020·Scientific Reports·Ana Lucia AbelianskyHolger Strulik
Mar 1, 2017·The Journal of Nutrition, Health & Aging·C QuallsS Andrieu

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