Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Gillian L GalfordCarlos C Cerri

Abstract

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use ma...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 14, 2011·Nature·Jonathan A FoleyDavid P M Zaks
Apr 24, 2013·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Gillian L GalfordCarlos E P Cerri
Nov 18, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·R DeFries, C Rosenzweig
Jan 24, 2015·Journal of Experimental Botany·Bryan McKersie
Mar 31, 2015·Regional Environmental Change·Isabel M D RosaRobert M Ewers
Jul 29, 2016·Frontiers in Microbiology·Silvia Pajares, Brendan J M Bohannan
Mar 7, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Patrik John Gustav HenrikssonAndreu Rico

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