Handling input correlations in pharmacoeconomic models

Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
Klemen Naveršnik, Klemen Rojnik

Abstract

Probabilistic uncertainty analysis is a common means of evaluating pharmacoeconomic models and exploring decision uncertainty. Uncertain parameters are assigned probability distributions and analyses performed by Monte Carlo simulation. Correlations between input parameters are rarely accounted for despite recommendations from several guidelines. By outlining theoretical reasons for including correlations and showing numerous examples of existing correlations, we appeal to the analyst to consider input dependencies. Our objective is to review the available methods to do so, give technical details on implementation and show, by using examples of published studies, the effect input correlations have on model outputs. A hierarchy of methods for dealing with correlations in Monte Carlo simulation is presented and used. The choice of method depends on the amount of information available on dependency and consists of functional modeling, joint distributions/copulas, and coupling of marginal distributions. We induced input correlation with various methods and showed that in most cases the choice of optimal decision remained the same as in the independent scenario. There was, however, a significant change in the value of further inform...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 5, 2013·Telemedicine Journal and E-health : the Official Journal of the American Telemedicine Association·Klemen Naveršnik, Aleš Mrhar
Jun 22, 2016·Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research·Anna Miquel-CasesLotte M G Steuten
Dec 24, 2014·BMC Medical Research Methodology·Carlos CrespoMartín Ríos
Jan 7, 2014·The European Journal of Health Economics : HEPAC : Health Economics in Prevention and Care·Klemen Naveršnik
Sep 18, 2015·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, Hawre J Jalal
Jan 7, 2021·Journal of Market Access & Health Policy·Mohamed Neine, Desmond Curran
Jul 11, 2021·Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research·Milad KarimiMaureen Rutten-van Mölken

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