Has Wild Poliovirus Been Eliminated from Nigeria?

PloS One
Michael Famulare

Abstract

Wild poliovirus type 3 (WPV3) has not been seen anywhere since the last case of WPV3-associated paralysis in Nigeria in November 2012. At the time of writing, the most recent case of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in Nigeria occurred in July 2014, and WPV1 has not been seen in Africa since a case in Somalia in August 2014. No cases associated with circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2) have been detected in Nigeria since November 2014. Has WPV1 been eliminated from Africa? Has WPV3 been eradicated globally? Has Nigeria interrupted cVDPV2 transmission? These questions are difficult because polio surveillance is based on paralysis and paralysis only occurs in a small fraction of infections. This report provides estimates for the probabilities of poliovirus elimination in Nigeria given available data as of March 31, 2015. It is based on a model of disease transmission that is built from historical polio incidence rates and is designed to represent the uncertainties in transmission dynamics and poliovirus detection that are fundamental to interpreting long time periods without cases. The model estimates that, as of March 31, 2015, the probability of WPV1 elimination in Nigeria is 84%, and that if WPV1 has not been el...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 28, 2018·PLoS Biology·Michael FamulareGuillaume Chabot-Couture
Oct 9, 2018·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Dominika A KalkowskaKimberly M Thompson
Apr 30, 2020·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Dominika A Kalkowska, Kimberly M Thompson
Nov 6, 2015·Food and Environmental Virology·Joseane Simone de Oliveira PereiraEdson Elias da Silva
Apr 22, 2018·Current Environmental Health Reports·Andrew F BrouwerJoseph N S Eisenberg
Aug 4, 2020·Expert Review of Vaccines·Kimberly M Thompson, Dominika A Kalkowska

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