Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change

Journal of Experimental Botany
P Stratonovitch, Mikhail A Semenov

Abstract

To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current ...Continue Reading

Associated Software

Mar 2, 2021·Mikhail Semenov
Mar 2, 2021·Mikhail Semenov

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Citations

Oct 3, 2015·Journal of Experimental Botany·Kemal Kazan, Rebecca Lyons
Dec 10, 2015·Frontiers in Plant Science·Krishna S V JagadishNese Sreenivasulu
May 27, 2015·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Fahad AlghabariIhsanullah Daur
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Jun 27, 2017·Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry·Hai An TruongHojoung Lee
Jul 2, 2019·The New Phytologist·Monica BorghiAlisdair R Fernie
Jun 25, 2019·Journal of Experimental Botany·Mostafa AbdelrahmanLam-Son Phan Tran
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Oct 24, 2020·Scientific Reports·Zartash FatimaSajjad Hussain
Jun 13, 2021·Scientific Reports·Chengzheng YuMadhu Khanna
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Jun 22, 2021·Royal Society Open Science·Thibaut PutelatMikhail A Semenov
Jul 3, 2021·Plants·Joanna Kocięcka, Daniel Liberacki

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Software Mentioned

HadGEM2
WG generator
ES
Sirius
LARS
HadGEM

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