DOI: 2008.00098Nov 5, 2020Paper

Herd immunity under individual variation and reinfection

ArXiv
Antonio MontalbánM. Gabriela M. Gomes

Abstract

We study a SEIR model considered by Gomes et al. \cite{Gomes2020} and Aguas et al. \cite{Aguas2020} where different individuals are assumed to have different levels of susceptibility or exposure to infection. Under this heterogeneity assumption, epidemic growth is effectively suppressed when the percentage of population having acquired immunity surpasses a critical level - the herd immunity threshold - that is lower than in homogeneous populations. We find explicit formulas to calculate herd immunity thresholds and stable configuration, and explore extensions of the model.

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