Heterogeneity in susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on lattices.

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Franco M NeriChristopher A Gilligan

Abstract

The percolation paradigm is widely used in spatially explicit epidemic models where disease spreads between neighbouring hosts. It has been successful in identifying epidemic thresholds for invasion, separating non-invasive regimes, where the disease never invades the system, from invasive regimes where the probability of invasion is positive. However, its power is mainly limited to homogeneous systems. When heterogeneity (environmental stochasticity) is introduced, the value of the epidemic threshold is, in general, not predictable without numerical simulations. Here, we analyse the role of heterogeneity in a stochastic susceptible-infected-removed epidemic model on a two-dimensional lattice. In the homogeneous case, equivalent to bond percolation, the probability of invasion is controlled by a single parameter, the transmissibility of the pathogen between neighbouring hosts. In the heterogeneous model, the transmissibility becomes a random variable drawn from a probability distribution. We investigate how heterogeneity in transmissibility influences the value of the invasion threshold, and find that the resilience of the system to invasion can be suitably described by two control parameters, the mean and variance of the trans...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 11, 2011·PLoS Computational Biology·Krisztian MagoriJohn M Drake
Oct 25, 2016·Physics of Life Reviews·Gui-Quan SunZhen Wang
Sep 26, 2012·Physical Review Letters·F J Pérez-RecheC A Gilligan
Aug 16, 2013·Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics·Thomas P HandfordSergei N Taraskin
Jan 15, 2016·Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics·David Broder-RodgersSergei N Taraskin
Nov 26, 2016·Physical Review Letters·Pau ClusellaAntonio Politi
Dec 15, 2016·Physical Review. E·Ernesto EstradaYamir Moreno
Jun 17, 2018·Physical Review. E·Robert R Wilkinson, Kieran J Sharkey
Feb 4, 2014·Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics·Sergei N Taraskin, Francisco J Pérez-Reche

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