Heterogeneity of cancer risk due to stochastic effects

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
W F Heidenreich

Abstract

Persons with exactly the same genetic background, behavior, environment, etc. may have differences in cancer risk due to a different number of cells on the way to malignancy. These differences are estimated quantitatively by using the two-stage clonal expansion model. For liver cancer the estimated relative risk for persons without intermediate cells at age 40 is less than 10% when compared to the risk of the total population, while the top 0.1% risk group has a more than 100-fold risk compared to the population. The risk of the 1% percentile in risk is more than 100-fold of the risk of the more than 95% persons without intermediate cells. The number of intermediate (premalignant) cells in the risk groups cannot be calculated from incidence data only because they depend strongly on a nonidentifiable parameter. But under plausible assumptions, less than about 1,000 intermediate cells are present at age 40 even in high-risk persons.

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Citations

Apr 6, 2006·Radiation and Environmental Biophysics·Wolfgang F Heidenreich
Dec 19, 2007·Radiation and Environmental Biophysics·Ludwig FeinendegenEberhard O Voit
Dec 22, 2007·Radiation and Environmental Biophysics·M P LittleD C Thomas
Apr 1, 2008·Mathematical Biosciences·Jihyoun JeonE Georg Luebeck
Oct 23, 2014·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Adam M Finkel
Dec 17, 2014·International Journal of Epidemiology·Odd O AalenSteinar Tretli

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