High climate model dependency of Pliocene Antarctic ice-sheet predictions

Nature Communications
Aisling M DolanAlan M Haywood

Abstract

The mid-Pliocene warm period provides a natural laboratory to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice-sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. Proxy data suggest that during the warm Pliocene, portions of the Antarctic ice-sheets, including West Antarctica could have been lost. Ice-sheet modelling forced by Pliocene climate model outputs is an essential way to improve our understanding of ice-sheets during the Pliocene. However, uncertainty exists regarding the degree to which results are model-dependent. Using climatological forcing from an international climate modelling intercomparison project, we demonstrate the high dependency of Antarctic ice-sheet volume predictions on the climate model-based forcing used. In addition, the collapse of the vulnerable marine basins of Antarctica is dependent on the ice-sheet model used. These results demonstrate that great caution is required in order to avoid making unsound statements about the nature of the Pliocene Antarctic ice-sheet based on model results that do not account for structural uncertainty in both the climate and ice sheet models.

References

Jun 12, 1999·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·D J Austin, R M Anderson
Sep 18, 2013·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Marcus P S BadgerRichard D Pancost
Apr 25, 2015·Nature Communications·Masako YamaneHiroyuki Matsuzaki
Oct 16, 2015·Nature·N R GolledgeE G W Gasson
Apr 1, 2016·Nature·Robert M DeConto, David Pollard

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Software Mentioned

SSA
SIA
MIROC4m
PlioMIP2
PlioMIP1
NorESM
ANICE
PRISM3
PLISMIP
Parallel

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