Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability reflected in subtropical Australian precipitation.

Scientific Reports
C BarrF H McRobie

Abstract

The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450-1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address...Continue Reading

References

Jul 13, 2002·Science·Lowell StottRobert Thunell
Dec 16, 2006·Science·Michael J McPhadenMichael H Glantz
Mar 17, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Aaron F DiefendorfKatherine H Freeman
Nov 3, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Matthew J Kohn
Jan 5, 2013·Science·Kim M CobbChristopher D Charles
Jun 9, 2016·Nature Communications·Michael L GriffithsWahyoe S Hantoro
Jul 8, 2017·Nature Communications·Francesco S R PausataZhengyu Liu

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Citations

Aug 9, 2020·Scientific Reports·Steven G SandiPatricia M Saco
Jun 5, 2021·Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry : RCM·Savannah WorneMelanie J Leng
Aug 29, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Zoë A ThomasStuart J Khan
Oct 14, 2021·Nature Communications·Yancheng ZhangZhonghui Liu
Nov 4, 2021·Scientific Data·Jacky CrokeRamona Dalla Pozza

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Software Mentioned

GAM
R
OxCal
LS
mgcv

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