How bad is a 10% chance of losing a toe? Judgments of probabilistic conditions by doctors and laypeople.

Memory & Cognition
Andrea Gurmankin Levy, Jonathan Baron

Abstract

We presented a Web questionnaire to 139 physicians and medical researchers and 109 laypeople. The subjects made judgments of badness and importance of prevention for eight medical conditions at each of seven different probability levels. By assuming that the response to each of the 56 risks was monotonically related to transformations of the probability and of the disutility of the condition, we could assess the relative effect of probability and disutility on each subject's judgments. Physicians' judgments were more sensitive than laypeople's judgments to changes in probability. Older and female laypeople were less sensitive to probability (and correspondingly, more responsive to differences in severity among medical conditions). Laypeople varied more than physicians in their responsiveness to probability. These results point to general individual differences in the effect of probability on evaluations of medical risks. They may also provide insight into causes and noncauses of physician-patient miscommunication.

References

Oct 30, 1987·Science·R E NisbettP W Cheng
Nov 26, 2004·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Andrea D GurmankinKatrina Armstrong
Mar 16, 2005·Archives of Internal Medicine·Andrea D GurmankinKatrina Armstrong

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Citations

Feb 13, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Jinshu CuiRichard S John
Apr 2, 2015·PloS One·Renata S SuterGuido Biele
Dec 3, 2016·BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making·UNKNOWN Writing Group for CERTAIN-CHOICESDavid R Flum
Feb 18, 2021·Patient Education and Counseling·Kerstin KalkeCourtney L Scherr
Dec 8, 2021·Journal of Genetic Counseling·Heather P LaceyPrerna Dayal

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