DOI: 10.1101/19013631Dec 5, 2019Paper

How do interventions impact malaria dynamics between neighboring countries? A case study with Botswana and Zimbabwe

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
F. AgustoSally Blower

Abstract

Malaria is a vector-borne disease that is responsible for over 400,000 deaths per year. Although many countries world wide have taken measures to decrease the incidence of malaria many regions remain endemic, and in some parts of the world malaria incidence is increasing. While control efforts are largely focused at national levels, the movement of individuals between countries may complicate the efficacy of elimination efforts. Here, we consider the case of neighboring countries Botswana and Zimbabwe, connected by human mobility. Both have improved malaria rates in recent years, but are not yet reached elimination. We use a two-patch Ross-MacDonald Model with Lagrangian human mobility to examine the coupled disease dynamics between these two countries. In particular, we are interested in the impact that interventions for controlling malaria applied in one country can have on the incidence of malaria in another country. We find that dynamics and interventions in Zimbabwe can dramatically influence pathways to elimination in Botswana, largely driven by Zimbabwe's population size and larger basic reproduction number.

Related Concepts

Related Feeds

BioRxiv & MedRxiv Preprints

BioRxiv and MedRxiv are the preprint servers for biology and health sciences respectively, operated by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. Here are the latest preprint articles (which are not peer-reviewed) from BioRxiv and MedRxiv.

Related Papers

Acta Tropica
Sungano MharakurwaSouthern Africa ICEMR Team
South African Medical Journal = Suid-Afrikaanse Tydskrif Vir Geneeskunde
M J Robinson
The Central African Journal of Medicine
N Heard, T Jordan
© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved