How do phenology, plasticity, and evolution determine the fitness consequences of climate change for montane butterflies?

Evolutionary Applications
Joel G Kingsolver, Lauren B Buckley

Abstract

Species have responded to climate change via seasonal (phenological) shifts, morphological plasticity, and evolutionary adaptation, but how these responses contribute to changes and variation in population fitness are poorly understood. We assess the interactions and relative importance of these responses for fitness in a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Because environmental temperatures affect developmental rates of each life stage, populations along the gradients differ in phenological timing and the number of generations each year. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity of adult butterflies, exhibits local adaptation across elevation and responds plastically to developmental temperatures. We integrate climatic data for the past half-century with microclimate, developmental, biophysical, demographic, and evolutionary models for this system to predict how phenology, plasticity, and evolution contribute to phenotypic and fitness variation along the gradient. We predict that phenological advancements incompletely compensate for climate warming, and also influence morphological plasticity. Climate change is predicted to increase mean population fitness in the first seasonal generation at h...Continue Reading

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References

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Aug 18, 2017·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Joel G Kingsolver, Lauren B Buckley

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Citations

Apr 11, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Pieter A ArnoldLoeske E B Kruuk
Jul 15, 2021·Integrative and Comparative Biology·Kira D McEntireNoa Pinter-Wollman
Sep 17, 2021·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Cheng WendaTimothy C Bonebrake

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