How host heterogeneity governs tuberculosis reinfection?

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
M G M GomesC J Struchiner

Abstract

Recurrent episodes of tuberculosis (TB) can be due to relapse of latent infection or exogenous reinfection, and discrimination is crucial for control planning. Molecular genotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates offers concrete opportunities to measure the relative contribution of reinfection in recurrent disease. Here, a mathematical model of TB transmission is fitted to data from 14 molecular epidemiology studies, enabling the estimation of relevant epidemiological parameters. Meta-analysis reveals that rates of reinfection after successful treatment are higher than rates of new TB, raising an important question about the underlying mechanism. We formulate two alternative mechanisms within our model framework: (i) infection increases susceptibility to reinfection or (ii) infection affects individuals differentially, thereby recruiting high-risk individuals to the group at risk for reinfection. The second mechanism is better supported by the fittings to the data, suggesting that reinfection rates are inflated through a population phenomenon that occurs in the presence of heterogeneity in individual risk of infection. As a result, rates of reinfection are higher when measured at the population level even though they mig...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 8, 2014·PLoS Pathogens·M Gabriela M GomesAntonio Coutinho
Jun 20, 2014·BMC Infectious Diseases·Joao Sollari LopesM Gabriela M Gomes
Feb 13, 2016·Journal of Theoretical Biology·M Gabriela M GomesCarlota Rebelo
Apr 7, 2015·Epidemics·Julia R GogJames O Lloyd-Smith
Nov 2, 2015·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Rebecca L SmithYrjö T Gröhn
Oct 24, 2015·Journal of Theoretical Biology·David J Gerberry
Jul 15, 2015·Theoretical Population Biology·S T R PinhoM G M Gomes
Mar 23, 2015·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Alessandro MargheriM Gabriela M Gomes
Apr 11, 2014·Journal of Internal Medicine·A ZumlaM Maeurer
Mar 23, 2018·PloS One·Isaac Mwangi Wangari, Lewi Stone
Nov 2, 2018·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·James M TrauerDavid W Dowdy
Jun 7, 2019·Nature Communications·M Gabriela M GomesChristian Lienhardt
Mar 24, 2016·BMC Infectious Diseases·M Gabriela M GomesS Bertel Squire
Dec 10, 2016·International Journal of Mycobacteriology·Pere-Joan Cardona
May 26, 2017·Jornal brasileiro de pneumologia : publicaça̋o oficial da Sociedade Brasileira de Pneumologia e Tisilogia·Amadeu Antonio VieiraSolange Adreoni
Jan 29, 2017·Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling·Victor MorenoCarlos Castillo-Chavez
Dec 8, 2021·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Tommaso LorenziAgnese Zardini

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