PMID: 16633391Apr 25, 2006Paper

How low can it go? Projecting ischaemic heart disease mortality in New Zealand to 2015

The New Zealand Medical Journal
Martin TobiasNorman Sharpe

Abstract

This study aims to identify how ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates in New Zealand have varied between successive cohorts and time periods. This information is then used to project IHD mortality rates and counts (burdens) out to year 2011-15. Age/period/cohort models were constructed (5-year periods and 5-year age groups, generating 10-year overlapping cohorts) using both frequentist and Bayesian methods. Data were available from 1956 for the total population and from 1981 for Maori. The projection period was 2001-5 to 2011-15. Uncertainty was quantified as the Bayesian 90% credible interval. IHD mortality rates for all age by gender groups increased from 1956-60 to peak in 1966-70, then declined by more than 60% to current (1996-2000) levels. However, the decline has been much shallower for Maori. This decline has resulted from increasingly favourable period effects since 1971-75 (less marked for Maori). However, no substantive cohort effects have been seen, at least from the 1891 to the 1951 cohort. Our model suggests that, for the first time, a substantive and unfavourable cohort effect may be emerging among recent birth cohorts. IHD mortality rates are projected to continue to fall from 2001-05 to 2011-15, albeit ...Continue Reading

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

© 2022 Meta ULC. All rights reserved