How Much Are We Saving after All? Characterizing the Effects of Commonly Varying Assumptions on Emissions and Damage Estimates in PJM

Environmental Science & Technology
Priya L DontiInês M L Azevedo

Abstract

In recent years, several methods have emerged to estimate the emissions and health, environmental, and climate change damages avoided by interventions such as energy efficiency, demand response, and the integration of renewables. However, differing assumptions employed in these analyses could yield contradicting recommendations regarding intervention implementation. We test the magnitude of the effect of using different key assumptions-average vs marginal emissions, year of calculation, temporal and regional scope, and inclusion of nonemitting generation-to estimate Mid-Atlantic region power pool (PJM) emissions and damage factors. We further highlight the importance of factor selection by evaluating three illustrative 2017 power system examples in PJM. We find that for a simple building lighting intervention, using average emissions factors incorporating nonemitting generation underestimates avoided damages by 45% compared to marginal factors. For PJM demand response, outdated marginal emissions factors from 2016 overestimate avoided damages by 25% compared to 2017 factors. Our assessment of PJM summer load further suggests that fossil-only average emissions factors overestimate damages by 63% compared to average factors incor...Continue Reading

References

Apr 11, 2012·Environmental Science & Technology·Kyle Siler-EvansM Granger Morgan
Jun 27, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Kyle Siler-EvansJay Apt
Nov 11, 2014·Environmental Science & Technology·Nathaniel GilbraithPaulina Jaramillo
Jan 30, 2015·Environmental Science & Technology·Eric S Hittinger, Inês M L Azevedo
Apr 2, 2015·Environmental Science & Technology·Allison WeisRoger Lueken
Jul 1, 2015·Environmental Science & Technology·Mili-Ann M TamayaoInês M L Azevedo
Aug 9, 2016·Environmental Science & Technology·Nicole A RyanGregory A Keoleian
Dec 22, 2016·Environmental Science & Technology·Michael J Fisher, Jay Apt
Oct 11, 2017·Environmental Science & Technology·Eric Hittinger, Inês M L Azevedo
Nov 21, 2017·Environmental Science & Technology·Maninder P S ThindJulian D Marshall

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Citations

Jul 10, 2021·Environmental Science & Technology·Maxwell WoodyGregory A Keoleian
Aug 23, 2019·Environmental Science & Technology·Thomas A Deetjen, Inês L Azevedo

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