How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics

The American Naturalist
Sharon BewickWilliam F Fagan

Abstract

Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

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Citations

Jun 5, 2016·Integrative and Comparative Biology·Mercedes Burns, Nobuo Tsurusaki
Oct 11, 2016·Current Opinion in Insect Science·Carol L Boggs
May 17, 2017·Scientific Reports·Stephen J MayorDavid C Schneider
Apr 19, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Heather M KharoubaElizabeth M Wolkovich
Mar 20, 2018·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Garrett OttoWilliam F Fagan
Nov 5, 2020·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Marta ZaffaroniDaniele Bevacqua
Oct 16, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Guoliang LiZhibin Zhang

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