How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Jan LorenzDirk Helbing


Social groups can be remarkably smart and knowledgeable when their averaged judgements are compared with the judgements of individuals. Already Galton [Galton F (1907) Nature 75:7] found evidence that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than estimates of experts. This wisdom of crowd effect was recently supported by examples from stock markets, political elections, and quiz shows [Surowiecki J (2004) The Wisdom of Crowds]. In contrast, we demonstrate by experimental evidence (N = 144) that even mild social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect in simple estimation tasks. In the experiment, subjects could reconsider their response to factual questions after having received average or full information of the responses of other subjects. We compare subjects' convergence of estimates and improvements in accuracy over five consecutive estimation periods with a control condition, in which no information about others' responses was provided. Although groups are initially "wise," knowledge about estimates of others narrows the diversity of opinions to such an extent that it undermines the wisdom of crowd effect in three different ways. The "social influence effect" diminishes the diversity of the crowd with...Continue Reading


Sep 27, 1974·Science·A Tversky, D Kahneman
May 6, 2008·Personality and Social Psychology Review : an Official Journal of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc·Winter A MasonEliot R Smith
Jul 31, 2008·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Ralf D SommerfeldManfred Milinski
Aug 30, 2008·Psychological Science·Edward Vul, Harold Pashler
Jan 28, 2009·Psychological Science·Stefan M Herzog, Ralph Hertwig
Jul 1, 2009·Topics in Cognitive Science·Robert L Goldstone, Todd M Gureckis

❮ Previous
Next ❯


Aug 31, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Simon Farrell
Sep 17, 2011·Biology Letters·Andrew J KingJulia P Myatt
Jun 21, 2013·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Richard P MannJens Krause
Apr 12, 2012·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Bahador BahramiChris Frith
May 3, 2013·PloS One·Kazutoshi SasaharaKazuyuki Aihara
Nov 14, 2013·PloS One·Mehdi MoussaïdHansjörg Neth
Apr 24, 2014·PloS One·Wataru ToyokawaTatsuya Kameda
Jun 12, 2014·PloS One·Kristina Lerman, Tad Hogg
Aug 10, 2013·Science·Lev MuchnikSean J Taylor
Feb 14, 2014·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·N StroeymeytN R Franks
Feb 7, 2014·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Iyad RahwanJean-François Bonnefon
Mar 1, 2014·The Journal of Chiropractic Education·Dominic A Giuliano, Marion McGregor
Apr 25, 2014·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Albert B Kao, Iain D Couzin
Jul 18, 2014·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Adam L Cronin, Martin C Stumpe
Aug 22, 2014·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Victor NaroditskiyManuel Cebrian
Aug 8, 2014·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·David GarciaNicolas Perony
Feb 7, 2016·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Camila C S CaiadoMichael J O'Brien
Feb 11, 2014·Annals of Epidemiology·Karl Mattingly, Anne-Louise Ponsonby
Mar 29, 2016·Royal Society Open Science·Ralf H J M KurversJens Krause
Dec 8, 2014·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Paul RauwolfJoanna J Bryson
Mar 2, 2013·Scientific Reports·Pavlin MavrodievFrank Schweitzer
Sep 29, 2015·Trends in Cognitive Sciences·Ulf Toelch, Raymond J Dolan
Oct 16, 2015·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·R Alexander Bentley, Michael J O'Brien
Mar 30, 2016·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·R Alexander BentleyMichael J O'Brien
Jul 21, 2015·Topics in Cognitive Science·Boris GranovskiyRobert L Goldstone
Aug 13, 2015·AIDS and Behavior·Si Thu TheinWilli McFarland
Jan 21, 2016·The Behavioral and Brain Sciences·Matt Motyl, Ravi Iyer
Apr 23, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Mehdi MoussaïdWolfgang Gaissmaier
Jul 31, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Takao SasakiStephen C Pratt
Apr 14, 2015·PloS One·Víctor M EguíluzJuan Fernández-Gracia
Nov 14, 2015·PLoS Computational Biology·Gabriel Madirolas, Gonzalo G de Polavieja
Apr 17, 2015·PloS One·Klarita Gërxhani, Jeroen Bruggeman
Apr 2, 2015·PloS One·Andrés AbeliukPascal Van Hentenryck
Jul 13, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Stefano BaliettiDirk Helbing
Nov 29, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Toon HaerJeroen C J H Aerts

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds


Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.


Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.


Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.