How urban characteristics affect vulnerability to heat and cold: a multi-country analysis.

International Journal of Epidemiology
Francesco SeraAntonio Gasparrini

Abstract

The health burden associated with temperature is expected to increase due to a warming climate. Populations living in cities are likely to be particularly at risk, but the role of urban characteristics in modifying the direct effects of temperature on health is still unclear. In this contribution, we used a multi-country dataset to study effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships by a range of city-specific indicators. We collected ambient temperature and mortality daily time-series data for 340 cities in 22 countries, in periods between 1985 and 2014. Standardized measures of demographic, socio-economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators were derived from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Regional and Metropolitan Database. We used distributed lag non-linear and multivariate meta-regression models to estimate fractions of mortality attributable to heat and cold (AF%) in each city, and to evaluate the effect modification of each indicator across cities. Heat- and cold-related deaths amounted to 0.54% (95% confidence interval: 0.49 to 0.58%) and 6.05% (5.59 to 6.36%) of total deaths, respectively. Several city indicators modify the effect of heat, with a higher mortality...Continue Reading

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Citations

Dec 26, 2019·Nihon eiseigaku zasshi. Japanese journal of hygiene·Kazuya KotaniHirohisa Takano
Nov 22, 2019·International Journal of Public Health·Martin Röösli, Guéladio Cissé
Feb 9, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·You Jin KwonYou Ha Kwon
Aug 25, 2020·Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences·J YuY Chung
Oct 25, 2020·Early Human Development·Jean Calleja-AgiusNeville Calleja
Mar 3, 2021·Journal of Urban Health : Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine·James MilnerPaul Wilkinson
Apr 13, 2021·Journal of Urban Health : Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine·Mónica RodriguesAlfredo Rocha
Jun 15, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Thammanitchpol Denpetkul, Arthit Phosri

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