How variation in predictor measurement affects the discriminative ability and transportability of a prediction model

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
R PajouheshniaR H H Groenwold

Abstract

Diagnostic and prognostic prediction models often perform poorly when externally validated. We investigate how differences in the measurement of predictors across settings affect the discriminative power and transportability of a prediction model. Differences in predictor measurement between data sets can be described formally using a measurement error taxonomy. Using this taxonomy, we derive an expression relating variation in the measurement of a continuous predictor to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of a logistic regression prediction model. This expression is used to demonstrate how variation in measurements across settings affects the out-of-sample discriminative ability of a prediction model. We illustrate these findings with a diagnostic prediction model using example data of patients suspected of having deep venous thrombosis. When a predictor, such as D-dimer, is measured with more noise in one setting compared to another, which we conceptualize as a difference in "classical" measurement error, the expected value of the AUC decreases. In contrast, constant, "structural" measurement error does not impact on the AUC of a logistic regression model, provided the magnitude of the error is t...Continue Reading

Citations

Dec 11, 2019·International Journal of Epidemiology·Maarten van SmedenRolf H H Groenwold
May 31, 2019·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Romin PajouheshniaKarel G M Moons
Aug 17, 2019·Neurosurgery·Hendrik-Jan MijderwijkMarcel A Kamp
Apr 13, 2020·Breast Cancer Research and Treatment·Daniele GiardielloMarjanka K Schmidt
Nov 11, 2019·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·Kim LuijkenUNKNOWN Collaborators
Jun 17, 2020·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·Matthew SperrinNiels Peek
May 3, 2021·Annals of Emergency Medicine·Steven M Green, David L Schriger
May 6, 2021·Statistics in Medicine·Valentijn M T de JongThomas P A Debray

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