How well must climate models agree with observations?

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
Dirk Notz

Abstract

The usefulness of a climate-model simulation cannot be inferred solely from its degree of agreement with observations. Instead, one has to consider additional factors such as internal variability, the tuning of the model, observational uncertainty, the temporal change in dominant processes or the uncertainty in the forcing. In any model-evaluation study, the impact of these limiting factors on the suitability of specific metrics must hence be examined. This can only meaningfully be done relative to a given purpose for using a model. I here generally discuss these points and substantiate their impact on model evaluation using the example of sea ice. For this example, I find that many standard metrics such as sea-ice area or volume only permit limited inferences about the shortcomings of individual models.

References

Jul 17, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jiping LiuYongyun Hu
Jan 30, 2015·Nature·Jochem Marotzke, Piers M Forster

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Citations

Nov 5, 2016·Science·Dirk Notz, Julienne Stroeve
Feb 18, 2017·PloS One·Francisco EstradaWouter J W Botzen
Apr 23, 2019·Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans·Benjamin A LangeChristian Haas
May 29, 2018·Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·Mark C Serreze, Walter N Meier
Jan 1, 2018·Current Climate Change Reports·Dirk Notz, Julienne Stroeve
May 17, 2018·Nature Communications·Hugues GoosseMartin Vancoppenolle
Dec 15, 2016·Journal of Climate·Detelina P IvanovaKate D Marvel

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Software Mentioned

PIOMAS
MPI
ESM
LR

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