Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

Science
B D SanterCheng-Zhi Zou

Abstract

We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic "fingerprint" predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth's climate.

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Citations

Sep 19, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Benjamin D SanterMark D Zelinka
Mar 27, 2020·Nature Communications·Rei ChemkeLorenzo M Polvani
Mar 25, 2020·Science Advances·Katarzyna B TokarskaReto Knutti
Jul 22, 2018·Science·William J Randel
Mar 22, 2020·Scientific Reports·G Sofia, E I Nikolopoulos
Feb 15, 2020·Harmful Algae·Michael L BrosnahanDonald M Anderson
Dec 1, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Carlota MuñizNicolas Weidberg

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