Human salmonellosis: estimation of dose-illness from outbreak data

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Kaatje BollaertsKoen Mintiens

Abstract

The quantification of the relationship between the amount of microbial organisms ingested and a specific outcome such as infection, illness, or mortality is a key aspect of quantitative risk assessment. A main problem in determining such dose-response models is the availability of appropriate data. Human feeding trials have been criticized because only young healthy volunteers are selected to participate and low doses, as often occurring in real life, are typically not considered. Epidemiological outbreak data are considered to be more valuable, but are more subject to data uncertainty. In this article, we model the dose-illness relationship based on data of 20 Salmonella outbreaks, as discussed by the World Health Organization. In particular, we model the dose-illness relationship using generalized linear mixed models and fractional polynomials of dose. The fractional polynomial models are modified to satisfy the properties of different types of dose-illness models as proposed by Teunis et al. Within these models, differences in host susceptibility (susceptible versus normal population) are modeled as fixed effects whereas differences in serovar type and food matrix are modeled as random effects. In addition, two bootstrap pro...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 16, 2011·Foodborne Pathogens and Disease·Sarah WelbyYves Van der Stede
Nov 3, 2010·International Journal of Food Microbiology·Peter F M TeunisNorval J C Strachan
Sep 28, 2010·International Journal of Food Microbiology·Claudia BinterMats Gunnar Andersson
Apr 23, 2011·Food Microbiology·Ursula Gonzales-Barron, Francis Butler
Apr 28, 2009·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Kaatje Els BollaertsKoen Grijspeerdt
Feb 5, 2009·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Ides BooneKoen Mintiens
Aug 14, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·J M DavidL Watier
Mar 7, 2014·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Armand Maul
Mar 5, 2010·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Kaatje BollaertsYves Van der Stede
Jul 1, 2014·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Régis PouillotSherri B Dennis
Mar 1, 2012·Food Microbiology·Vanessa Mendonça SoaresJosé Paes de Almeida Nogueira Pinto
Apr 11, 2012·Journal of Food Protection·Jan Mei SoonPhillip Seaman
May 31, 2017·Nature Reviews. Microbiology·Raina K PlowrightJames O Lloyd-Smith
Aug 9, 2019·PloS One·Olof R NilssonOlivia Steele-Mortimer
Jul 23, 2019·Journal of Applied Microbiology·T P Oscar
Nov 1, 2020·Medical Hypotheses·Thomas P Oscar
Aug 8, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Rubayat JamalJennifer Weidhaas

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