Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Tamara Ben-AriNils Chr Stenseth

Abstract

Carrying out statistical analysis over an extensive dataset of human plague reports in Chinese villages from 1772 to 1964, we identified plague endemic territories in China (i.e., plague foci). Analyses rely on (i) a clustering method that groups time series based on their time-frequency resemblances and (ii) an ecological niche model that helps identify plague suitable territories characterized by value ranges for a set of predefined environmental variables. Results from both statistical tools indicate the existence of two disconnected plague territories corresponding to Northern and Southern China. Altogether, at least four well defined independent foci are identified. Their contours compare favorably with field observations. Potential and limitations of inferring plague foci and dynamics using epidemiological data is discussed.

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Citations

Jan 16, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ulf BüntgenJosef Kyncl
Aug 25, 2012·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Ulf BüntgenAnthony J McMichael
Dec 12, 2012·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·L AgierH Broutin
Nov 29, 2013·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Bernard CazellesMario Chavez
Feb 14, 2014·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Lei XuZhibin Zhang
Dec 19, 2012·Infection, Genetics and Evolution : Journal of Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Genetics in Infectious Diseases·Christian A Devaux
Sep 13, 2016·Trends in Microbiology·Cheryl P AndamMichael G Campana
Jul 14, 2017·PloS One·Elisa BenincàWim van der Hoek
Jul 18, 2019·Royal Society Open Science·Zhe SunBing Xu
Nov 26, 2019·Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change·Bas J P van BavelTim Soens
Dec 11, 2020·Clinical Microbiology Reviews·R BarbieriM Drancourt
Feb 25, 2017·Microbiology Spectrum·Antonio Fornaciari

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