Impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in a Himalayan basin, Nepal.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Samit ThapaWei Zhang

Abstract

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is one of the major sources of fresh water on Earth and is currently under serious threat of climate change. This study investigates the future water availability in the Langtang basin, Central Himalayas, Nepal under climate change scenarios using state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques. The daily snow area for the region was derived from MODIS images. The outputs of climate models were used to project the temperature and precipitation until 2100. Three ML models, including Gated recurrent unit (GRU), Long short-term memory (LSTM), and Recurrent neural network (RNN), were developed for snowmelt runoff prediction, and their performance was compared based on statistical indicators. The result suggests that the mean temperature of the basin could rise by 4.98 °C by the end of the century. The annual average precipitation in the basin is likely to increase in the future, especially due to high monsoon rainfall, but winter precipitation could decline. The annual river discharge is projected to upsurge significantly due to increased precipitation and snowmelt, and no shift in hydrograph is expected in the future. Among three ML models, the LSTM model performed better than GRU and RNN models. In...Continue Reading

References

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May 22, 2020·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·Minzhi YangYihui Gao
Oct 8, 2020·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·Leelambar Singh, Subbarayan Saravanan

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