Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Coronavirus Disease Healthcare Demand, Central Texas, USA.

Emerging Infectious Diseases
Xutong WangLauren Ancel Meyers

Abstract

Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. To estimate the impact of the timing and intensity of such measures, we built a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates age-stratified risks and contact patterns and projects numbers of hospitalizations, patients in intensive care units, ventilator needs, and deaths within US cities. Focusing on the Austin metropolitan area of Texas, we found that immediate and extensive social distancing measures were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases did not exceed local hospital capacity by early May 2020. School closures alone hardly changed the epidemic curve. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks and cause a bed shortage in intensive care units. This analysis informed the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by Austin on March 24, 2020.

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Citations

Aug 21, 2020·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Lorenzo Sadun
Sep 22, 2020·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Xutong WangLauren Ancel Meyers
Sep 17, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Heba M AdlySaleh A K Saleh
Jan 9, 2021·Epidemiology and Infection·Wenning LiHongkui Fan
Jan 23, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Anwar A Sayed
Nov 24, 2020·Journal of the Indian Institute of Science·Aniruddha AdigaAnil Vullikanti
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Jun 20, 2021·Nature Communications·Haoxiang YangLauren Ancel Meyers
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Jul 8, 2021·Pediatrics International : Official Journal of the Japan Pediatric Society·Tomohiro KatsutaHiroyuki Moriuchi

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POLYMOD

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