Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
Jim W HallMike Panzeri

Abstract

Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 billion pounds to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 billion pounds, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pounds and 0.8 billion pounds. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pounds and 40 billion pounds. Non-structural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost a...Continue Reading

References

Sep 30, 2005·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·M N TsimplisS Jevrejeva

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Citations

Dec 25, 2012·The Science of the Total Environment·Prashant Kumar, Boulent Imam
Nov 18, 2016·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Subhash Janardhan Bhore
Jan 9, 2016·Water Science and Technology : a Journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research·Qianqian ZhouHeping Wang
Jun 20, 2008·Health & Social Care in the Community·Hilary Arksey, Marjolein Morée
Jan 1, 2016·Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change·Annegret H ThiekenFritz Schöberl

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