Impacts of future climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada

The Science of the Total Environment
Zhong LiYurui Fan

Abstract

Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demon...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 12, 2019·Science·Kenneth V RosenbergPeter P Marra
Apr 27, 2018·Water Science and Technology : a Journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research·Gurvinder S MundiBahram Gharabaghi
Nov 1, 2017·Molecular Ecology·Katherine D BalasinghamDaniel D Heath
Nov 23, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Mohit P Mohanty, Slobodan P Simonovic

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