Impacts of intensifying or expanding cereal cropping in sub-Saharan Africa on greenhouse gas emissions and food security

Global Change Biology
Marloes P van LoonM K van Ittersum

Abstract

Cropping is responsible for substantial emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) worldwide through the use of fertilizers and through expansion of agricultural land and associated carbon losses. Especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), GHG emissions from these processes might increase steeply in coming decades, due to tripling demand for food until 2050 to match the steep population growth. This study assesses the impact of achieving cereal self-sufficiency by the year 2050 for 10 SSA countries on GHG emissions related to different scenarios of increasing cereal production, ranging from intensifying production to agricultural area expansion. We also assessed different nutrient management variants in the intensification. Our analysis revealed that irrespective of intensification or extensification, GHG emissions of the 10 countries jointly are at least 50% higher in 2050 than in 2015. Intensification will come, depending on the nutrient use efficiency achieved, with large increases in nutrient inputs and associated GHG emissions. However, matching food demand through conversion of forest and grasslands to cereal area likely results in much higher GHG emissions. Moreover, many countries lack enough suitable land for cereal expansion ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 30, 2019·American Journal of Human Biology : the Official Journal of the Human Biology Council·Zane S Swanson, Herman Pontzer
Feb 13, 2020·Clinical & Experimental Ophthalmology·Pratik ChandraNeil Murray
May 16, 2020·Global Change Biology·Alicia LedoJon Hillier
Sep 7, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Le QiMing Gao
Apr 26, 2021·Annals of Clinical Microbiology and Antimicrobials·Liã Bárbara ArrudaRichard A Kock

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