PMID: 11607666Apr 30, 1996Paper

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
J H Dieterich, B Kilgore

Abstract

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts larg...Continue Reading

References

May 12, 1995·Science·W L Ellsworth, G C Beroza

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Citations

Dec 20, 1989·Journal of Molecular Biology·A J Davison, B Moss
Dec 20, 1989·Journal of Molecular Biology·A J Davison, B Moss
Sep 5, 2008·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Martin H Müser
Sep 19, 2000·Nature·L Seeber, J G Armbruster
Aug 22, 2018·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Erland M Schulson
Aug 16, 2006·Physical Review Letters·S M RubinsteinJ Fineberg

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